POLI 110
January 8, 2018
Set up column break
POLI 110
Lots of types of questions:
Which of these is a fundamental quality of scientific inquiry?
Explain why.
A statement about the world
We can accept or reject the truth of a claim
Many possible criteria for evaluating a claim
Foreign aid is beneficial
Basis for the claim:
"The war against terror is bound up in the war against poverty." Who said that? Not me. Not some beatnik peace group. Secretary of State [and retired General] Colin Powell. And when a military man starts talking like that perhaps we should listen.
Arguing that claim is true because a person with authority says it is true.
"Chief of police says that the gun control bill will lead to more murders."
"Immunization against relatively harmless childhood diseases may be responsible for the dramatic increase in autoimmune diseases." — Dr. Robert Mendelsohn MD, pediatrician
Quantum mechanics is incomplete
"God does not play dice"
"no-spooky-action-at-a-distance"
As far as the cyber, I agree to parts of what Secretary Clinton said. We should be better than anybody else, and perhaps we're not. I don't think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the DNC. I mean, it could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. … So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare. It is — it is a huge problem. … The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it's hardly doable.
I have a son. He's 10 years old. He has computers. He is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable.
"Climate change is not caused by human activity"
"These scientists say the evidence does not support the claim."
"Given your condition, you should take this new drug, X."
"I am a doctor."
Expertise not a guarantee of being correct
Experts may have an agenda
Cutting the corporate tax rate will dramatically increase economic growth, offsetting the loss in revenue from the cut in rates
Tax Foundation economic models find increase in GDP of 3.7% and deficit increased by only $400 billion over ten years.
Expertise not a guarantee of being correct
Experts may have an agenda
Too easy to cherry-pick authorities that agree
Representative Tom Cole:
Though mainstream forecasters like the Joint Committee on Taxation and University of Pennsylvania have issued unflattering analyses of GOP proposals, Cole says his tax-committee colleagues tell him other models offer sunnier results in line with his core belief that lower taxes boost the economy. He doesn't know what those models are, but doesn't worry about that. He distrusts economic forecasts across the board because, he says, they're so often wrong. "I don't find any of that persuasive," he explains. "There are about as many economists as there are opinions."
Expertise not a guarantee of being correct
Experts may have an agenda
Too easy to cherry-pick authorities that agree
What happens when authorities disagree?
The basis of authority is often "science."
Turns science into something magic and should not make it persuasive
Recent studies suggest that it’s very important that you come into this room right over here just now. Studies also suggest that it’s equally important you do not waste time asking questions like “what room” and “why” and “why is this so important to you,” but just step this way through the door very quickly and by yourself, immediately. The studies were conducted, and the evidence is conclusive: this room just over here is where you should go next, without anyone coming with you. Scientists did them, the studies. Which ones? Yes. The studies are all finished now, and you don’t need to see them. The studies suggested that it’s not important you see the studies at all, but it is important that you hurry along, quickly now, because time is of the essence. The studies say now is the best time for you to be alone in that room.
Recent studies suggest shhh and hush. A number of studies – more studies than you could count, but don’t count them – have all concluded the same thing. The room is for you. Go there now, without looking inside of it first or leaving the door cracked open behind you. All the studies agree. They’re all concerned about you, and they want what’s best for you, and for the room. The studies were published. The studies were conducted. The studies started and happened and ended, and they’re full of data, and the data is for you. As it turns out, “Things are best for you when you go into the room right now without bringing anyone with you,” one of the scientists from the study said. “That’s when things are best, in the room.” You should go there now.
Foreign aid is beneficial
Basis for the claim:
If developing countries are poor, then obviously the problem is a lack of money. So giving them more money has to help.
Claims from common sense:
Examples:
"Guns kill people, so of course gun control will reduce murders."
"Corporate tax cuts benefit everyone, because businesses with more money will pay employees more."
"Governments should rarely or never run deficits"
"People or families cannot spend more than they make, neither should the government"
In 2003:
"US military invasion in Iraq will bring peace, democracy, and economic growth to the country."
"The occupation of Germany promoted demilitarization, denazification, democratization and capitalist development while garnering widespread support within Germany and outside"
Often based on superficial similarities
Often based on analogy between very different situations
"Guns kill people, so of course gun control will reduce murders."
"People kill people, so gun control will not stop murderers, because other weapons are available."
"Concealed carry of guns increases public safety, because crimes will be stopped or deterred by using guns in self-defense"
"Concealed carry of guns decreases public safety, because availability means more people will make rash decisions to use firearms"
Often based on superficial similarities
Often based on analogy between very different situations
Often good reasons what the opposite claim also makes sense
A claim from personal experience:
A claim based on one's own personal (nonsystematic) observation or one's own reaction to an observation
"No one I know is voting for ____, so they won't win."
"I've had two identical watches from Timex that broke; they make poor quality products."
"You're not going to find the scientific study that can support broken-windows one way or the other. … The evidence I rely on is what my eyes show me…"
We generalize too quickly from a small number of cases and our experience
Our exposure to the world may be skewed
We generalize too quickly from a small number of cases and our experience
Our exposure to the world may be skewed
We observe the world selectively
We generalize too quickly from a small number of cases and our experience
Our exposure to the world may be skewed
We generalize too quickly from a small number of cases and our experience
Our exposure to the world may be skewed
We observe the world selectively
"What particularly galls police is that ivory-tower academics — many of whom have never sat in a patrol car, walked or bicycled a beat, lived in or visited regularly troubled, violent neighborhoods or collected any relevant data of their own 'on the ground' — cloak themselves in the mantle of an empirical 'scientist' and produce 'findings' indicating the 'broken windows' has been disproved. Worse, they allege that police have had little to do with the declines in crime."
Two ways:
lots of opposition, rooted in cultural norms, religious belief, tradition
attitudes changed within generations
So-called "contact hypothesis" applied to many excluded minorities
Contact may humanize the other group, encourage taking their perspective, dispel prejudices
… may be more open-minded and persuadable. That is why they have these experiences.
… may have weaker cultural norms or institutions opposing same-sex marriage. More tolerant places may be more attractive to gay people or make them more comfortable being out. Thus, contact occurs in more tolerant places.
Can a single conversation change minds on divisive social issues, such as same-sex marriage?
Are conversations about same-sex marriage more persuasive when they are with a gay person?
Subjects either saw:
Identified attributes of social scientific evidence
Contrasted to unscientific evidence
Examples
Experiment on registered voters
Two treatment, Two placebo, One control group
Surveyed over 9 months
Broockman and Kalla ultimately run new experiment!
Subjects either saw:
… do government policies that recognize and accommodate ethnic, cultural, religious difference
Can interethnic relationships be durably transformed by a state or government in a way that outlives the government itself?
From accounts of survivors:
"[w]hen the war broke out the Moldovans immediately burned down our house. They were the ones who helped the Germans, they burned houses and people. … The Moldovans were worse than the SS. … They started to burn houses, chase out people. … We didn't have anything that could be taken away, they were searching and grabbing from [Jews] who had things."
"The majority [of the locals] did not perceive the Jews with alienation … but rather … the majority perceived the occupying power as alien, but the Jews as theirs."
Validate survivors
We could replicate this data: